Carlton's Futuring Research Blog

Shifting Structures of Society

2009-09-07T21:28:00.000-07:00

The Social Impacts of the Technology Revolution – Part II of Technology’s Promise

This section discusses what the author describes as the “creative destruction of social institutions”. William E. Halal,(Halal, 2008), in his book "Technology's Promise", feels that the issue goes beyond organizational change and feels that existing societies , in order to shift to be more socially responsible, need an institutional change instead.

The hierarchical order of business, government and even families is discussed.

Halal says that the change that needed is a decentralized self-organized network of “self managed internal enterprises”.

Additionally Halal states that the profit motive, which dominates most of the corporations in the world, will have to be transformed into a corporate community where focus will shift to the intangible knowledge assets of skilled workers, partnerships, and software. This focus will replace over the shoulder supervision and allow innovation, creativity; entrepreneurship and overall knowledge work will dominate. This new style of management and worker will emphasize what is produced and not where.
In this brave new configuration, leaders will listen and care rather that dictate.

I tend to agree with some of the components of the author’s perspective, I must say that it appears that it will be quite some time (because of the nature of humans) before we shift to a more cooperative, socially responsible business and societal model.

Today’s information and media evidence points to the fact that our society’s evolution toward “science-based interdisciplinary dialogue” is currently mired in the phase described by “group pathologies” (Christakis, 2006). This phase describes how individuals can disrupt the work of groups through expressing negative social-emotional behaviors such as:
• Venting anger and frustration
• Perceiving the situation to be a threat to their self-interests
• Using the situation to get attention
• Following some inappropriate strategy to meet social and emotional needs

It (the shift to social responsibility) will only begin when the current privileged societal groups realize that the privileges of the past are dinosaurs in the near and long term reality.

Platform for Future Learning

2009-08-31T11:26:00.000-07:00

There is data that suggests that the direction of learning (post M-learning, e-learning, v-learning, t-learning modalities) will be a blending of all learning artifacts into a ubiquitous system that uses technology to transform our immediate environment into a realism-based setting. In this setting humans will learn more naturally and easily. The closest example could be dubbed a "learning Holodex".

Some scholars have described this environment as "learning without reading". I don't completely share their belief, but instead believe that the visual, immersive, environment will be the dominate delivery medium, followed by audio as the secondary modality, with verbiage being the tertiary support component in the system.

Future innovation estimation

2009-08-23T20:26:00.000-07:00

The use of Nanotechnology in medicine is thought to be one of the most promising uses of nanotechnology (the closet to the robotic surgery item on our wiki list). The article did not provide a time-frame for the widespread adoption of the technology or techniques but I will use my future prognostication skills to say the time-frame will be within 20 years.
The scientists in the article are working on detecting Coronary Heart Disease in the early stages. The proposed process will make use of three types of nanostructured probes:
a)molecular beacons
b)semiconductor quantum dots
c)magnetic nanoparticles

These components will detect, mark, study and provide an image of coronary plaque formations.

Please view the embedded article entitled “Nanotechnology in Medicine and Health” The entire article is included at the bottom of this page(specific article information starts on page 126).

A second study conducted by the Millennium Project of the American Council for the United Nations University and The Foundation for the Future. This project collected foreseeable factors that might significantly affect the future of humanity in the next 1000 years.

The study puts forth the belief that the “inherited diseases of our ancestors will no longer exist” (by the 22nd century).

Please view the embedded article related to this information entitled “ Millennium 3000 Scenarios - Excerpt from the State of the Future at the Millennium”. The entire article is included at the bottom of this page.

Cool Web 2.0 Tool

2009-08-16T20:29:00.000-07:00

The Web 2.0 tool that I have chosen is a timeline tool.

This tool can be used for colaboration on project milestone events.

This app allows the quick creation of timelines that can be modified by project team members.

It is free, simple to setup and is easy to use.

SDP and CKD

2009-08-10T00:19:00.000-07:00

My analysis focused on the Structured Design Process and it's use in the case entitled "The challenges of Collaboration in the CKD situation". The "Problematique" notation was used to display the "mess" of the problems regarding Chronic Kidney Disease.

The four basic stages of inquiry were used with the 1st three stages being co-laboratory processes and the last stage used being the Delphi process.

48 participants completed influence mapping (of the associated influence tree) using CogniScope software.

The next phase, or 2nd stage, was composed of 4 steps:

1. Envision parts of the solution in relation to the overall problem, with participants individually listing separate potential action options that address specific barriers.

2. Clarify individual perceptions about each action option, in order to promote group learning.

3. Cluster action options based on their similarity and compile individual judgments (by voting) to further understand which action options are of higher relative saliency

4. Use this collective understanding to identify the most salient action options.

This process was followed by a 3rd stage that created alternative action scenarios.

Finally the participants generated action options and voted on each action option. The voting yielded a total of 12 actions.

I have included a mind map of the "Structured Design Process". The map is a Web 2.0 tool and can be manipulated with the mouse. Please feel free to experiment with it.

The future is cloudy

2009-08-02T21:07:00.000-07:00

Famous Forecasts -

Lewis, Richard D.. "Chapter 12 - Empires—Past, Present, and Future". The Cultural Imperative: Global Trends in the 21st Century. Intercultural Press. © 2003. Books24x7. <http://common.books24x7.com/book/id_7940/book.asp>

“All men are born good.” (Confucius 500 B.C.)
“So many centuries after creation, it is unlikely that anyone could find hitherto unknown lands of any value.” (King Ferdinand of Spain 1486, before Columbus’ voyage)
“Rail travel at high speed is not possible because passengers, unable to breathe, would die of asphyxsia.” (Irish professor 1835)
“Drill for oil? You mean drill into the ground and try to find oil? You’re crazy!” (U.S. executive 1859)
“The telephone has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication.” (Western Union corporate memo 1876)
“I’m sorry, Mr. Kipling, but you just don’t understand how to use the English language.” (Publisher’s rejection letter 1889)
“The horse is here to stay. The automobile is only a novelty—a fad.” (a banker advising Henry Ford not to invest in the Ford Motor Company 1903)
“Airplanes are interesting toys but of no military value.” (French military strategist Marshal Foch 1911)
“The wireless has no imaginable commercial value. Who would pay for a message sent to nobody in particular?” (Friends of RCA founder 1920)
“Can’t act. Can’t sing. Balding. Can dance a little.” (MGM executive 1929, about Fred Astaire’s screen test)
“I have no political ambition for myself or for my children.” (Joseph Kennedy 1936)
“Hitler has missed the bus.” (Chamberlain1940)
“I think there is a world market for about five computers.” (IBM Chairman Thomas Watson 1943).
“For the majority of people, the use of tobacco has a beneficial effect.” (Los Angeles surgeon 1963)
“No woman in my time will be Prime Minister.” (Margaret Thatcher 1969)

Weather Control - http://www.manolith.com/2009/07/30/pending-future-technologies/

(source)

In 1966, a radio documentary, 2000 AD, was aired as a forum for various media and science personalities to discuss what life might be like in the year 2000. The primary theme running through the show concerned a prediction that no one in the year 2000 would have to work more than a day or two a week, and our leisure time would go through the roof. With so much free time, you can imagine that we would not want our vacations or day trips ruined by nasty weather, and therefore we should quickly develop a way to control the weather, shaping it to our needs. Taking the lighting from the clouds or the wind from the tornadoes were among the predictions, yet they were careful to note that we might not take weather control too far because of political reasons. Unfortunately, we here in the 2000’s still work full weeks, and we still get our picnics rained out from time to time. You can listen to the weather control selection of the broadcast here.

Web 2.0 Tool - BibME

2009-07-27T13:12:00.000-07:00

BibMe, http://www.bibme.org/, ia a free web 2.o tool that allows the user to search, store, create an APA citation, store the reference list for future retrieval AND export any saved reference list (in APA format) to MS Word.

The Future of Mobile

2009-07-27T13:03:00.000-07:00

The Horizon report mentioned Mobiles as being within the 1 year or less adoption period. This may be true for the simple things that are mentioned in the article (content exchange and delivery, instant feedback, file transfer, field work and data capture, instant messaging, microblogging, surveys, interviews, collaborative activities) however there seems to be an on-going discussion over which platform is best, how to include all of the standards that are now in place for the e-learning environment and even if the mobile platform is or will be the mobile platform of choice. The information so far tends to suggest that IDTV (Interactive Digital Television) or T-Learning will surpass the wide spread adaption of the m-learning platform (as far as the mobile devices of netbooks, smartphones are concerned).

2009-07-14T21:04:00.000-07:00

http://www.ted.com/talks/tom_wujec_on_3_ways_the_brain_creates_meaning.html

Tom Wujec discusses creating more effective learning with BIGVIS

1) How can we incorporate BIGVIS in our subject delivery of distance learning topics?

2) How can we enhance e-learning by transforming class material to embody the 3 principles of "make meaning":

a) Use images to clarify ideas

b) Interact with images to create engagement

c) Augment memory with persistent and evolving
views